Saturday, April 5, 2008

Agflation Play

In the March 22nd post, I talked about looking to profit from agflation. It is no longer the case in the grocery market where $100 can get you a shopping cart filled with food for the family. Now you are lucky to push the cart to your car for less than $200 with the very same items.

This week we did very well from the agflation play. And we did so with Mosaic (MOS).

Mosaic is is a producer of phosphate and potash combined, as well as nitrogen and animal feed ingredients. The Company operates its business through four business segments: phosphates, potash, offshore and nitrogen. The Phosphates segment operates mines and concentrates plants in Florida that produce phosphate fertilizer and feed phosphate, and concentrates plants in Louisiana that produce phosphate fertilizer. The Potash segment mines ad processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally. The Offshore segment produces and markets fertilizer products and provides other ancillary services to wholesalers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and farmers in South America and the Asia-Pacific regions. The Nitrogen segment consists of its equity investment in Saskferco and Mosaic’s nitrogen sales and distribution activities.

We ended the week with two very good trading days with this play. The market in most sectors traded pretty well and even better news came Friday. The company said its fiscal third-quarter profit jumped more than tenfold on higher prices. This gave everyone in the game a terrific weekend present!

We pulled out at the close on Friday with the anticipation of not knowing what the week ahead would bring. It was felt that taking profit and waiting to see the sentiment next week was the prudent thing to do verses risk loosing those long awaited gains.

It is no surprise that prices of food and fertilizer to grow the food is not expected to retreat. So we will look to play MOS again if the technicals are favorable. Fertilizer demand is higher than supply which also makes this play very positive. However the street is where the real game is playing this year so we'll have to keep a keen eye on the road in front of us and try to anticipate as well as react to the bumps in the pavement.

One thing that I have noticed is that in many areas around the city, restaurant traffic has not subsided. This proved to me at least that we indeed are a consumer nation! Despite loss of jobs, higher prices in food and gasoline, we like our luxuries. Perhaps we do not even consider them luxuries. My friends and I have talked about the spending habits of our relatives. Despite not having the means to live within our means and meet our obligations easily, we continue to spend.

There should be laws that prohibit banks from issuing credit cards to people who don't meet certain financial criteria. Also there should be laws which force creditors to review accounts regularly and reduce credit availability. There should be laws to prohibit interest rate increases.

While each individual is to blame for allowing themselves to get into a position of indebtedness, our government allows banks and credit issuing institutions to lend money irresponsibly to folks who have no business getting credit cards or for buying a home too expensive to reasonably afford.

If this is a government of the people, why are the people getting screwed? If we elect leaders, why don't those leaders do the right thing for their constituents? Why don't our leaders do what is right for the common man with pushing ahead on mass solar and wind power projects? Why don't our leaders make it easier rather than harder to be a small business person? Why do capital gains taxes have to be so high as to discourage investment? Why is big business favored over the small businesses? When it is obvious that big business is so often the root of many problems and small businesses are historically the backbone of our country? WHEN IS OUR COUNTRY GOING TO GO BACK TO ACTING FOR THE PEOPLE? It seems that they are against the people and for themselves. Why do we as a people put up with it? When Germany built over 100,000 solar generating plants in 2006 for the people, we are paying ever higher prices and our solar projects are like a needle in a hay stack in comparison?

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Cough..Cough..Gag..Gag..


Pollution is at an all time high globally. The problem is so bad that finally we are seeing videos, news casts, articles, movies, word-of-mouth, and web logs which scream the bloody bad situation we've managed to put our planet home into.

We may very well choke to death if we don't quickly figure out what to do about it. Still though, the governments of many countries including the U.S. don't seem to be taking any of it seriously enough to interrupt business as usual.

I've replaced all my regular bulbs and appliances with energy star rated products everywhere possible. I drive a car that gets an average 40 miles to the gallon. I combine my trips and don't have a heavy foot.

As an investor we can do another thing or two to encourage more focus on combating pollution. Alternative energy stocks in solar and wind are a start. And tonight I came across a company who deals with air born contaminants. The CEO has just acquired new shares.

This from a recent SEC filing:
We are one of the leading providers of air-pollution control products and services. We have a diversified base of more than 3,000 active customers among a myriad of industries including aerospace, brick, cement, ceramics, metalworking, ethanol, printing, paper, food, foundries, power plants, metal plating, woodworking, chemicals, tobacco, glass, automotive, and pharmaceuticals. Therefore, our business is not concentrated in a single industry or customer.

Our return to profitability in 2006 and 2007 after several years of losses is directly related to an increase in the level of pollution control capital expenditures which is being driven by an elevated focus on environmental issues such as global warming and energy saving alternatives as well as a U.S. Government supported effort to reduce our independence on foreign oil through the use of bio-fuels like ethanol and electrical energy generated by our abundant domestic supply of coal.

Consolidated sales in 2007 were $235.9 million, an increase of $100.5 million or 74.3% compared to 2006. This increase was primarily due to increased demand for our products and services created by the fundamental strength of many industrial sectors including ethanol production, steel production, coal fired power plant construction and automotive related sectors. This increase also included $27.5 million in new equipment sales revenues attributed to the addition of Effox, Inc. which was acquired in 2007 and $48.1 million in contracting revenues from a large automotive project at H.M. White, Inc. Additional demand for our products and services was created by increasingly strict EPA mandated industry Maximum Achievable Control Technology standards (“MACT”) and OSHA established Threshold Limit Values (“TLV”), as well as existing pollution control and energy legislation.

Financial highlights for the twelve months ended December 31, 2007 compared to twelve months ended December 31, 2006 include:

Net sales increased 74.3% to $235.9 million; Gross profit increased 67.7% to $40.4 million; Operating income increased 108.9% to $12.6 million; Net income GAAP - $6.3 million (increase of 103.8%); Net income non-GAAP - $7.0 million (increase of 204%); GAAP Earnings per diluted share - $0.45 (increase of 87.5%); Non-GAAP Earnings per diluted share $0.50 (increase of 256%).

The company is called CECO Environmental Corp (CECE)

News This Week:





CECO Environmental Corp. (Nasdaq: CECE), a leading provider of air pollution control and industrial ventilation systems, announced today that it has booked 33 new orders, each of which has a value of over $200,000.

Rick Blum, President and Chief Operating Officer, commented, "As usual, our orders are coming from a wide variety of industries. The largest order, which is in excess of $2.5 million, was received from an automotive company. Another significant order was received from a tire manufacturer. The rest of the business came from the metals, power, electric equipment, ethanol, steel, aluminum, gypsum, refining, and copper smelting industries."

Phillip DeZwirek, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "Fisher-Klosterman's China operation booked a significant order just last week. We are seeing ever increasing quoting activity in China and have already had established CECO customers visit the facility. Now that Fisher- Klosterman is part of CECO, we are in the process of establishing that facility as CECO Filters' manufacturing base in China along the lines of the facility that CECO Filters already has in India."

News This Week In Solar

Renewable energy is still a good investment for private equity, but high corn prices have taken investors' eyes off ethanol, said Scott Brown, chief executive of New Energy Capital.

New Energy Capital is a holding company that acquires minority or majority stakes in renewable energy companies.

"Any kind of renewable that generates energy, especially wind and solar power, are experiencing billions of dollars in new investments," Brown told Dow Jones Newswires in a telephone interview.

MORE

Southern California Edison (SCE) launched a project that will place 250 megawatts of advanced photovoltaic generating technology on 65 million square feet of roofs of Southern California commercial buildings. "This project will turn two square miles of unused commercial rooftops into advanced solar generating stations," said John E. Bryson, Edison International chairman and CEO. "We hope to have the first solar rooftops in service by August. The sunlight power will be available to meet our largest challenge – peak load demands on the hottest days." MORE

Executives from the world's top oil companies, in a congressional hearing today, told U.S. lawmakers that competition and high costs justify the industry's opposition to higher taxes.

Representative Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, called on chief executive officers from the oil industry to testify on record profits and gasoline prices before his Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
The House passed a measure in February over oil-industry objections that would impose $18 billion in new taxes on oil and gas companies to pay for wind and solar projects and energy conservation measures. The industry argues that the money should go toward exploring for and producing more fossil fuels, which executives say could help bring down prices.
``In general, the United States tends to resist the need to develop new domestic energy supplies,'' John Hofmeister, president of The Hague-based Royal Dutch Shell Plc's U.S. unit, said in written testimony. ``Can we afford to continue this approach while energy demand and costs are rising?'' `MORE


Southern California Edison said it would spend $875 million to put solar cells on 65 million square feet of commercial buildings, enough to generate 250 megawatts of electricity.

The FPL Group, a subsidiary of Florida Power & Light, said it would build a 250-megawatt Beacon Solar Energy Project on 2,000 acres in Kern County and have it running by 2011.

The Dine Wind Project, a partnership between the Navajo Nation and Boston's Citizens Energy, would put hundreds of 400-foot-tall windmills in the Gray Mountain area, about 50 miles north of Flagstaff, Ariz.

Pacific Gas & Electric today (April 1) will announce the largest series of solar-power contracts in the utility's history. The deal, to buy as much as 900 megawatts of electricity - or enough to power 540,000 California homes each year - involves five plants to be built during the next decade.

Top executives of the five biggest U.S. oil companies were pressed today to explain the soaring fuel prices amid huge industry profits and why they weren't investing more to develop renewable energy source such as wind and solar.

An acre of solar panels and converter boxes sits atop a Target store in Manteca, installed just two weeks ago as part of a corporate plan to control energy costs by harvesting the power of the sun.

On Thursday morning, U.S. Rep. Jerry McNerney toured the store — one of just 18 solar-equipped stores in California — guided by several Target officials from Minneapolis. The panels provide about 20 percent of the store's energy, said Raj Maheshwari, senior group manager of engineering property development for Target, who oversees the solar program. In the summer, when the days are longer, the percentage climbs to 60 percent.

A solar-powered hydrogen fueling station is officially open, just days after the state gutted rules designed to increase the number of hydrogen-powered cars on the road. The station uses solar energy to separate hydrogen from water to power clean-fuel vehicles. Its solar panels produce 80 kilowatts of electricity, roughly enough to power 40 homes, or about 14 fuel-cell vehicles. The station opened Tuesday as a joint venture between the Sacramento Municipal Utility District, British Petroleum, Ford Motor Company and the U.S. Department of Energy. It will power SMUD's fleet of seven fuel cell vehicles. A solar-powered hydrogen fueling station is officially open, just days after the state gutted rules designed to increase the number of hydrogen-powered cars on the road.

MTI Instruments Inc., a developer of precision measurement instruments, has made a new product focused on the solar cell production industry. The product, called the PV1000, will be on display at the Photovoltaic Technology Show in Munich, Germany, on April 2. MTI Instruments, a subsidiary of Mechanical Technology Inc. (Nasdaq: MKTY), based in Albany, N.Y., said the product would be incorporated into solar cell production lines. Robert Kot, MTI Instruments' vice president and general manager, said the product was developed with input from solar equipment suppliers and solar cell manufacturers.

Economic Predictions for 2008


New York Investing meetup organizer Daryl Montgomery predicts inflation and recession in 2008. Also the credit crisis spreading to credit cards, car loans, and student loans; real estate problems moving to commercial real estate; and more bank bailouts with the assistance of the U.S. government. Material presented at the Dec 12, 2007 meeting.

What Caused the Current Global Cedit and Financial Crisis (U.K.)

Parts 1 thru 5








Charlie Rose Talks to John Snow About Economic Turndown

The Winners Are!



4th Annual Executive Leadership Awards
New York


Last night was the 4th Annual Executive Leadership Awards held in New York. Videos are still being processed but we can show the winners here:

Leader in Innovation
Steve Jobs
CEO
Apple Inc.













Green Leadership
Fujio Cho
Chairman
Toyota Motor Corporation








Overall Executive Leadership
John T. Chambers
Chairman & CEO
CISCO Systems Inc.













Entrepreneurial Excellence
Bradbury H. Anderson
Vice Chairman & CEO
Best Buy Co., Inc.














Lifetime Achievement Award
Robert L. Johnson
Founder & Chairman
The RLJ Companies

The Lifetime Achievement Award honors the executive who has accomplished great success over his tenure and whose work has substantially influenced the business world.

Monday, March 31, 2008

Peak Oil & Green_Comments From The Floor

CLARCOR Inc. (CLC)

Important Year For Telecom Sector?

Perhaps this year will be the year that we finally see some meaningful advancements and consumer value in the cell phone market. One of my committee members in the local American Society For Quality lamented: "Every time I go back home to India, I hide my phone. Everyone has these fantastic phones that can do so much. When they ask to see my phone, I tell them that I left it in the United States."

Tomorrow begins the annual CTIA Wireless 2008 with pre-conferences starting today in Las Vegas.

My opinion is that the iPhone will overtake the Blackberry as the phone of choice. The reason is due to Apple's new emphasis on business productivity and security as well as on open software development. However, the CTIA show brings other vendors products into the mix:
  • Nokia's N95
  • AT&T's full length TV content
  • Samsung's ???
  • LG's ???
  • Sony Ericsson's Experia X1
Blackberry will continue to dominate this year I suspect but the iPhone will be hot on its heels very soon. Plus, since the iPhone has a very good working internet browser (Safari), I suspect we'll see some interesting web apps utilizing the internet as one of the first head turners for the phone.

The one thing that I totally disagree on is:
U.S. Mobile Market is Global Leader
U.S. consumers are paying less, using wireless more, and have more choices than any others in the world.
Based upon what my committee member said above, based on that when I went to Guatemala, cell phone usage was everywhere including being used by the smallest of children, cell towers everywhere and numerous. Based upon the fact that phones and phone service can be afforded by the poor in many cases. I don't know where this headline has any legs to stand on?

Also, are the consumers truly paying less or getting services they should have gotten before, finally at no additional cost? I agree we are using wireless more. I got rid of my home phone years ago because it made sense. More choices? If you count old phones which is where the discounted prices go towards as more choices...maybe that can be seen as true.

I believe it is that telecommunication industry as a whole in the United States aims to milk money out of the American public for all it can at each opportunity by stretching out the time it takes to bring us better service, more features, more value.


Nearly 2 billion people in the world do not have access to financial services but cell phones are about to change that.


BrokerIPTV and Brad Blumberg of Smarter Agent, smarteragent.com, at NAR Convention talking about LBS and GPS mobile real estate services using cell phones and delivering IDX listings using location based services.


Reducing Termination Fees..A Friendly Gesture?

Will Awards Translate To Broader Improvement?


Tonight is the culmination in the tabulation of dossiers of the most nominated candidates in the 4th Annual Executive Leadership Awards.

These awards will recognize executives who in the past year best exemplify:

OVERALL EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP
Demonstrated by financial results, shareholder value, management, innovation, corporate governance, business practices, and accountability -- as well as intangible factors, such as integrity and vision.

LEADER IN INNOVATION
Exemplified by advances in technology, business practices, management, production, and/or operations, as well as R&D expense as a percentage of sales.

ENTREPRENEURIAL EXCELLENCE
Leveraged calculated risks as a means to rewards, reflecting his/her entrepreneurial spirit.

GREEN LEADERSHIP
Employed innovative solutions that benefit customers and society at large and are vital to success in our changing world,. This is about creating solutions that are economically advantageous, as well as ecologically sound.

What would be of interest to me, is will we as a people look at the recipients, take note and follow the leaders? Or will we as a people just continue the status quo? What does it take for a new revolution of these award categories en-mass?

Obviously, even though these awards recognize the best, if more leaders were to be equally recognized, perhaps it would spur an increased consciousness. In return, that consciousness could relate in mass improvements across all sectors which would relate in many good things for business, customers, and investors.

Supposedly 1,000 CEOs were are asked to name two executives from companies other than their own, in these award categories. I wonder how many CEOs or their designees responded? I can't imagine nominations came from competitors but rather primarily from partnerships with companies they do business with.

It is being suggested that two of the awards will go to the CEOs of Apple and Toyota. If CNBC provides the videos of the awards, we may be able to link to them here this week.

Sunday, March 30, 2008

Food For Thought


This is a mix of the Book, related references and attempted interpretation. The context fits this web log (regards: sub prime and credit/housing crisis) so I thought it would be interesting to present it here and have it get you to thinking. Especially so, as I have witnessed first hand, the manipulation of credit banking against the consumer.

..."it will be argued that trade is encouraged by interest. That interest helps trade does not add merit to interest, for most trade today is conducted un-Christ-like. Does our trade glorify God or man? Trade can go on without interest. The old Hebrew nation and many others have managed without.

If we get sucked into the complicated theories about interest a person can get really confused.
The world has their financial gurus that are arguing, studying and contradicting each other as to how interest functions upon an economy. We are not to let ourselves be spoiled by philosophy (Col. 2:8). They would have us believe the economy regulates interest rates and borrowing, and they see all kinds of "benefits" of interest. In simple terms, interest allows people to spend more than their limits, and brings many to ruin.

Sometimes, as Christians we give the thief our coat and our hat besides our wallet to show him that God loves him. Interest is robbery and perhaps we may need to experience it for God's glory, but that does not mean robbery is O.K.
What would you replace lending on interest with? Won't people who will be ruined by borrowing, be ruined whether they took interest or not? Couldn't hard feeling arise if a man lending freely is injured for the need of money that was promised to be repaid, but wasn't? Isn't money lent longer when interest is charged and wouldn't the shorter period of freely loaned money be a hardship?

People can injure themselves with about anything. The Christian applies God's principles and the dynamics of those principles work toward success. First, we are commanded to lend where we do not expect to receive again—Lk 6:35. The borrower is instructed to be "Not slothful in business"—Rm 12:11 and 2 Thes 3. The borrower is plainly instructed not to live off of others unnecessarily. We are all commanded to honestly work with our hands. If we suffer for having righteously loaned money for a need, the Scripture's value system esteems such suffering. If that seems cruel to the world—they should recall all the suffering they have encouraged people to go through, it is an honor in the world to suffer through the Iron Man Triathlon (talk about pain), it was the in thing for worldly women to wear painful corsets and whale-bone girdles to force their bodies into painful unnatural shapes, unless one gets wasted with alcohol and suffers a hangover he is not cool at parties,... the list could go on of the many ways the world expects their people to suffer. So understand that for us to suffer for our God is our glory.

If we give money so that a person can be slothful and waste it, we show poor stewardship, because we do not want to encourage that person's sin of slothfulness. (Some misunderstand and think that not charging interest is carelessness. Satan would have us overly careful lest we lose some of our abundance—yet that abundance was given us so that we could share.) The question
is not whether we might suffer without charging interest, but what is the morally correct thing to do. That is the question. That money freely lent has its faults is no secret. The underlying principle is to do what is most loving toward God, and one's fellow man. The focus of interest is self.

How would the world today survive without interest?— How would it survive without soldiers to fight wars? What if this? What if that? Let us not worry about something the Scripture says will not happen. We know that evil along with its "bloodsucking usurers" are not going to all stop their bloodsucking just because you and I do, nor will the world self-destruct from lack of interest taking. But so what if it did? Why should the Christians be disturbed if the One-World-Order feel apart? These "if" questions are vain— but perhaps it may console the sincere seeker to know that the modern Moslem world has done very well without interest taking. Medieval Europe was often without interest and did fine. The natives of the Americas and Australia did fine without interest. And it is conceivable that the New Heavens and New Earth will be able to do just fine without interest.

As it stands today, interest takers have a vested interest in people being in need. If interest were not allowed the interest takers would develop more concern to see others sufficiently prosper.

Doesn't Mt 25:14-24 teach interest is right? We can use the Master's money to get worldly or heavenly treasure, it's your decision. You can use it selfishly or give it to Christ, it's your decision. God provides us with a surplus, so that we can use it to glorify Him, and so we might enjoy the blessings from giving.

Isn't a man worth $1,500 who loans $100 to a neighbor worth $1,500 losing more than the one borrowing gains? No. It is true though that the value of money can fluctuate—there is nothing wrong with repaying according to the real value of the paper one has borrowed. To say "you loaned me x amount of purchasing power and I will pay back x amount of purchasing power," is not interest. This is due to the fact that the paper we call money is not real money, but the alchemy of the Satanic financial Power. Yes, the occult does create gold out of paper and lends it out to nations and individuals on interest. (See chap. 3.3 to learn how the international bankers are a Satan worshiping clique.)

And then to avoid the effect of the Satanic alchemists and their inflation people try to use the interest-rates (extortion-rates) to profit from inflation. They justify their interest in extortion by claiming they are merely "protecting" themselves from inflation. If they simply want to protect themselves they should buy real money, i.e. gold, silver and real wealth i.e. land, houses, and tools; rather than stealing from someone through interest.

Aren't you trying to turn the world upside down? True Christians, like Paul was (Acts 17:6), will be accused of this, because they are trying to turn it right side up. When the Power makes Christianity illegal, will we have enough Christianity to be convicted? I hope so.

What have Christians done in the past (before the Media was controlled by the wrong people)
concerning interest? We should not rest our faith on the actions of men, but rather "let God be true, but every man a liar." Rm 3:4
Still, many will be interested in the past.

EARLY CHURCH FATHERS
Barnabas, known from many scriptures concerning him in Acts, Corinthians and Galatians, wrote against interest (usury). He also wrote "Thou shalt labor with thy hands to give to the poor that thy sins may be forgiven."1

Clement, who also worked with Paul (see Phil.) wrote in praise of the Old Testament for its humanity in forbidding interest. He said, "indeed the man who is generous to the poor receives sufficient usury in gratitude, praise and honor of his fellowman."2

Barnabas' writings were considered scripture in Alexandria for about a century, and Clements' writings were considered scripture for two centuries by the early Christians. The Christian Hermes also wrote against interest. An early writing which some say Hermas wrote says, "They that receive without a real need, shall give an account for it: but he that gives shall be innocent; for he has fulfilled his duty as he received it from God."3

Tertullian (c.155-220 A.D.) wrote against Interest. He wrote that Lk 6:35 means the same as Ez. 18:8. Remember that Ez. 18:8 refers to interest as evil and Lk. 6:35 refers to lending without hoping for anything in return. For Tertullian's references to the evil of interest see this footnote.4

St. Cyprian (205-258 A.D.) and St. Apolonius of Hierapolis (who wrote in 175-176 A.D.) also wrote against interest.
Cyprian wrote in 248 or 249 A.D. "Non faenerabis fratri tuo usurum pecuniae et usuram ciborum"—"We must not practice interest."5


In the 5th and 6th centuries we have the writings of many religious leaders who completely condemn the taking of any kind of interest.6

The Catholic church banned interest until 1830. Augustine in his City of God, Bk. III, chapt. 17 related how the worst measure of oppression in the Roman Empire during the Punic wars of all the many oppressive measures was "The people overwhelmed...most of all by usury..." The Anabaptist churches although they disagreed with the Catholic church over many issues, saw eye to eye with the Catholics concerning interest taking. Only in recent times have many of them lost the teaching that interest is evil.

One of the first important assemblies of Christians after the Apostles was the Council of Nicene. This Council forbid usury (interest) to the clergy with these words, "Whoever of the clergy, for filty Lucres sake, exerciseth Usury, let him be Disposed."7

The 44th of the Apostolic Canons and the 1st Council of Aries (314 A.D.) prohibited it in the same way. The reformers Menno Simons, Martin Luther and Zwingli were agreed on one thing. They all condemned interest.

Martin Luther-"When money is lent and a charge made or more taken back than was originally made over, that is usury, and as such is condemned by every law...nor can they (interest takers) be saved unless they do penance"8 "the devil invented it," and anyone who charges interest is "a thief, robber and murderer."9 "Rents are but the 'fig leaves' behind which usury hides its shame".10 "Money is an unfruitful commodity which I cannot sell in such a way as to entitle me to a profit."11 "Will not interest soon be the ruin of the world?"12 Luther felt Luke 6:34 commands us to follow the Old Testament teachings against usury.13 He also felt that the trading companies, and bankers, and merchants revealed such a "bottomless pit of avarive and wrong-doing that there is nothing that can be discussed with a good conscience."14 "How can there be anything good in trade?" 15

Menno Simons-"But in all things, one toward another, long-suffering, friendly, peaceable, ever ready in true Christian love to serve one's neighbor in all things possible: by exhortation, by reproof, by comforting, by assisting, by counseling, with deed and with possessions."16 "We beg of you from the bottom of our hearts, for Jesus' sake, to reflect a moment whether your spirit is one with the Lord's Spirit, and your conviction agrees with His holy Word; whether it is the Spirit of the Lord and the love for your neighbor or the thirst for gain and the thought of temporal support that send and drive you into your profession. Do you preach God's Word out of a pure heart without falsification; administer His sacrements correctly, and lead a pious and irreproachable life as the Scriptures teach; and do you verily shun and expel from the fellowship of the Lord, public transgressors, primpers, drunkards, LOVERS OF GAIN, USURERS, liars, swindlers, contentious persons, brawlers, adulterers, such as follow after prostitutes, blasphemers, those who take oaths, unrighteous people, etc.?"17 (Emphasis added)

Even the Catholic and Church of England preachers at this time warned of the evils of the merchants and their commercial schemes.18

For more, read or download The Magical Watchtowers, The Masonic Tower of Babel, Christianity's Systematic Destruction.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Game On!


Some things are more fun than checking company fundamentals and trade trend technicals.

Like sail surfing on the Caribbean, watching a great SciFi movie, playing with your BFF on a Saturday morning, or playing Gran Tourismo 5.

One of my earliest big successes in the market was not with Sony but with the company that sells all our favorite games to us.

GameStop (GME) was chosen this week by Zacks Aggressive Growth as a strong buy. Since Christmas, I've turned away from GameStop and concentrated on China but maybe its time to take a second look. Their earnings release says its up 17%. Like Ikea, GameStop is very selective about where they locate stores like in strip and shopping malls, foot and bicycle accessible. They are also the largest reseller of used games which is important to parents with children as new games can easily drain the pocketbook but used games are still as good as new but at a discount. The sentiment above really isn't as bad as it seems. Trading in your old played out games gives you a a discount on your new one. At the same time it makes it available to others and is not only a cheaper way to play but a bit more green too!


The company sells every popular game on every popular platform. By taking cues from the customer it is able to easily position itself to optimize sales and inventory. Unlike many companies where often no better than 50% of analysts raise their rating, ten out of 11 have raised their numbers on Gamestop. It isn't likely for that many analysts to be wrong all at the same time...er uh, I hope not. Guess I better do the homework, and recheck the fundamentals on my own!

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Visa?

I visited a local TDAmeritrade today. One of the consultants asked me what I was thinking of investing in. 'Visa (V) among other things' I told him. "Visa? Pretty speculative" he quipped. "Have you looked at TDAX its an ETF"? I felt like I was at US Bank all over again with them trying to sell you on their products. I tend to like and dislike these guys all at the same time. Some like to shoo you away faster than others as if you are cutting into their video watching time while others try to make commission by noting that they talked to you on this or that. It depends upon how much money you have in your account and how you've performed with it I think.

Solar did fairly well today as everyone that we track was in the green and five of them in the double digits percentage wise. They were SOLF 20.82%, SOL 16.24%, CSIQ 20.50%, AKNS 20.00%, and STP 11.03%.

There has been a lot of news this month in solar. Much more than I expected to see. One of them that made me bust out laughing was the pittance the U.S. government is going to invest at 11 universities over the next three years.
U.S. Department of Energy selects broad range of PV R&D projects to fund
Monday, March 17, 2008 10:35 AM
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will invest approximately $13.7 million over three years in 11 university-led photovoltaic projects addressing a wide range of technologies related to manufacturing processes and products.

Isn't that a paltry $415,000 per school per year? How fast can we develop anything at that pace? Heck our daily expenditure in Iraq is about $576,000,000 or or more precisely $575.96 million usd. Daily!

Something is better than nothing? Seems like the "Don't say we didn't do anything about alternative energy research" retoric. Uncle Sam has left the building, gone fishing, out to lunch, or do not disturb...in regards to being a world leader in innovation and technology. Have we really given up our technological leadership in favor of violence? How soon till we are no longer the one to watch? Huh? Seems like that time is coming quickly.

The German Federal Association of the Solar Industry reported that there were 1,300,000 solar plants in Germany in 2006. 220,000 new plants were erected in 2006 alone. Read more about the leader in renewable energy.

Photovoltaic in new dimensions
Here the sun is shining again: Europe's largest solar energy installation is located in the middle of a former lignite coal-mining area. The company GEOSOL has built a solar energy power station with an output of 5 MWh on a former sedimentation basin for ashes in Espenhain to the south of Leipzig. Not far away on the grounds of a former lignite power station in Borna there is another 22 hectare “solar field” with an output of almost 4 MWh.

Innovative: solar diesel and bio-ethanol
The company Choren AG from the Saxon city of Freiberg has developed a new process for producing synthetic fuel from biomass which is a world's first. Together with Daimler Chrysler and Volkswagen the „Sun Diesel“ is being made ready to go into production. In the Saxon-Anhalt town of Zeitz the company Südzucker AG has erected Europe's largest bio-ethanol plant. Here 260,000 m³ of bio-ethanol, 260,000 t of fodder which is rich in proteins and 30 million kWh electric current are being produced every year.

Spain Requires New Buildings Use Solar Power
As part of the country’s efforts to bring its building rules up to date and curb growing demand for energy.

Until now Spain’s building standards have done little in seeking to improve energy efficiency.“We have to make up the time we have lost,” Environment Minister Cristina Narbona said, inaugurating a seminar on the new technical building code

This means new homes have to be equipped with solar panels to provide between 30 and 70 percent of their hot water, depending on where the building is located and on its expected water usage.

New non-residential buildings, such as shopping centers and hospitals, now have to have photovoltaic panels to generate a proportion of their electricity.

I want someone else to get mad and say we are doing something substantial for renewable energy usage. I want someone to show me. I want to hear it on the news and see it in my town. I want to hear people talking about it like it wasn't some far off future thing.

Solar Cloudy But Clearing



That is my current position on solar investments at this time. Due to a bit of bad news of a polluter along with so much more going on in banking, housing, etc.. investors have turned away from solar for the moment. That is due to change however as we refocus the importance of the latest efforts in solar research and design.

The annual report from The Clean-Tech Market Authority was released this month citing the importance of subsidy support by government. The report shows that out of the total investment of Venture Capital, 10% has been focused on green technologies. (see below) Their forecast for green technologies is seen in the graphic above. (top)



We currently hold two companies: China Sunergy (CSUN) and Solarfun (SOLF) but there are many companies with attractive reasons to invest in them out there. If you've watched the videos from last week, you'll see an Israeli company which is running at full bore. Its technology is being used in the Mohave Desert right now. Germany has shown that much of the country can be sustained by a combination of Solar, Wind, and Biofuels which is managed by a single power station.

Like I said, there are many attractive companies, some of them you can't invest in yet through the markets, still others are available via OTC trading. I caution everyone on OTC trading as it is harder to reliably follow companies trading this way versus via the mainstream stock market. It is very easy to loose your money or see it go into limbo, so we won't trade there.

Perhaps the bottom line for the rapid growth of solar lies with our governments. Greed and corruption are rampant in almost every government including here in the U.S. With this lies the problem of support for what is right vs. where the money is for our leaders. Our men and women in politics seem to have their morals surgically extracted from them when they enter the political arena. They are bought and sold by large corporations who have no interest in what is right and wrong, what is good or bad. The greed of industry giants controls it seems every politician in an office which can do something for them now or in the near future.

We need the full support of government in order to quickly build an infrastructure of clean energy technologies. With the expenditure so far on Iraq and its future capital fallout, we could have provided every household in the U.S. with renewable energy. Or we could have done so on a large scale with alternative energy power stations. However this doesn't happen because there isn't enough money upfront apparently for politicians.

So it will take smaller corporate investment or the leadership of a company such as GE and the voice of the people to pressure politicians to embrace the technologies that can save our planet. It has to be done now, and not delayed in a long protracted plan as is so often used to quasi-table the important issues.

Ultimate Dream

  • Beyond your typical job
  • More value than money
  • Better than sex to some
    or chocolate to others
There is one basic need in all of us. Were it not for the need of food and water, it would be the one thing that each of us craves beyond all else.

The need to feel connected in some way, to another human being.

Life gravitates to life
a life in the present or in the past
real or imaginary

Tonight I was reminded of this through a fantastic soul moving movie of sound.

A fantastic story of love lost, both romantic and parental.

A story of faith, of hope, and love.



A story of how music moves us, drives us, propels us forward.

A quest for the life we know we deserve.

This movie stars:
Freddie Highmore as August Rush
Keri Russell of Felicity, Waitress
Jonathan Rhys Meyers of Bend It Like Beckham, Elvis, The Tudors
Terrance Howard of Hustle & Flow, Crash
Robin Williams
William Sadler of Roswell

You need to see this movie. Because it will give you something back that you've been missing. Its a good investment!

Monday, March 24, 2008

War Cost Update

Before we went to Iraq, Donald Rumsfeld told us the cost would be a war estimate of between $50 - $60 billion. Two academics estimate the government is spending $12bn a month in Iraq. A new book has hit the market, The Three Trillion Dollar War , by Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Linda Bilmes, a senior official during the Clinton presidency in the 1990s.

The authors project that 791,000 troops from Iraq and Afghanistan will claim disability compensation and benefits, noting that 39 per cent of the 700,000 troops who fought in the (brief) 1991 Gulf war claim disability. They estimate these costs from Iraq alone will be $371bn to $630bn. The extra costs to the defense budget - they estimate from $66bn to $267bn - come from the need to reset and replenish a military in which equipment has been used up at six to 10 times normal rates and human capital has been exhausted.

Their government spending estimate for the war is $1,292bn- $2,039bn, rising to $1,754bn-$2,655bn if interest is added.

Stiglitz and Bilmes add social costs not paid by the government, including the loss of productive capacity of those killed or wounded and quality of life impairments. These, they estimate, would amount to $295bn-$415bn for Iraq and Afghanistan

Add macro-economic costs deriving from higher oil prices and other effects including the impact on the economy of higher interest costs. For both Iraq and Afghanistan, they calculate this would come to between $187bn and $1,900bn. Yet, these estimates do not cover the cost outside the US.

Bilmes, who says the book leaves others to estimate the war's benefits, describes the book's 'three trillion' headline number as very conservative. She notes that the US federal government spent $108m last year on research into autism, a condition affecting one in 150 children. "We spend that in 4½ hours in Iraq. I'm sure, if they knew that, people would say it was wrong."

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Hand To Mouth

We need to plan for the future and take active steps in that planning. Then we must begin executing the plan and manage it. That is the skinny for fundamental investing. Hell, that is the basis for living a fulfilling life! However during this action, I had to go to the store to get some basics. Not video games to stave off the boredom of the constant bad news, not liqueur or beer to temporarily numb the effects of the current market. I had to go and get things like milk, eggs, bread, meat, and vegetables.

About every two weeks I go, get in the car and drive to the local Costco or Sam's Club for these things. And... if I don't want to be gone long, I go to a Meijers because it is closer. It recently dawned on me that every time, I've been wide-eyed when the final total lit on the register. I pick up the few bags and head back. Now normally you take this in stride as each year prices rise, like gas prices which we become accustomed to over time. Soon, the $3.05 per gallon will be cheap compared to the $3.80 we'll start seeing pop up here and there. Till a time when even that is cheap as we begin seeing the start of $4.05 per gallon.

But back to the food. I've started to see a few people carrying grocery sacks by hand as they walk home on our sidewalk-less streets. Which shows you that some people are starting to save the cost of transportation by walking (a novel idea?). Sadly perhaps they've even lost their job and they've even canceled their car insurance. They risk their lives by walking our sidewalk-less streets, crossing crosswalk-less intersections, all because it is too expensive to drive; but that they still must eat! They still must feed themselves and their families.

So as agflation - rising prices of agricultural products, affected by ethanol production and the rising oil prices (transportation of goods), increasing fertilizer costs hits us squarely in the mouth, we should probably look at profiting here while everyone is noticing. By some estimates, it takes ten to fifteen pounds of grain to get a pound of pork. Wheat price increases relate to higher cereal prices. Everything affects everything. So why not play on the side of those who are doing the very same thing; profiting from the ag-sector? Perhaps then we could also take on a little risk and save a Mother or Father from orphaning their children by giving those walking with grocery sacks a ride back home. Maybe the feeling that you've done a good thing will be payment enough for the bit of gasoline you consumed being a human being.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Will We Finally See The Light?

One of my big investing interests is in solar power. The Bush administration was sharply criticized by environmental groups for walking out of a round of informal discussions aimed at finding new ways of curbing greenhouse gases. That was in the year 2005.

Since then, focus has shifted to China because of its awesome hunger for energy. China and the United States, pollute more than anyone else. The U.S. pollutes more per person.

Thanks to this focus, more people are seeing the effects of pollution world wide and the consequences it will have on our very near future. For instance, the Florida Keys may no longer be inhabitable in just 20 years as sea water continues to rise.

One of the best answers for global carbon reduction and alternative energy is with solar power. Germany has taken the lead in helping communities embrace solar usage. Rooftops everywhere are being populated with panels. Farmers are beginning to devote a percentage of their fields to farm the sun's energy. And the 1st video below shows a combination of technologies in use today.

Solar is a good investment in the future and something we should all start talking up. The U.S. needs to see the light, not ethanol as a viable source of alternative energy. Scientists, engineers and the United States need to step up and take a lesson from Germany. Why not take the proven technology, improve it even more and put it to use in the this country!

Check out a couple of these videos:

Scientists of the University of Kassel in Germany prove that the entire country can be powered by renewables only. They connected biogas, wind and solar power in a distributed way and show it can deliver both baseloads and peakloads.

Solar energy breakthrough in Israel

To illustrate the decisions on the energy package presented to the European Commission on 23/1/2008, the EC's audiovisual service has produced an infoclip on photovoltaic energy. The Serpa Solar Plant, in Portugal, is one of the largest producers of solar energy in the world. Its construction was completed in January 2007 and the plant's 52,000 panels cover an area of 60 hectares. Enough electricity is produced to power 8,000 homes and farms in the Alentejo Region which reduces greenhouse gas emissions by over 30,000 tons per year. The European Union granted 3,675,576.63 euros to help co-finance the project.


How solar works and at the cost savings, value added to the home, environmental benefits and security and energy independence benefits.


Lawrence Kazmerski, director of the National Center for Photovoltaics in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, discussing the prospects of solar-photovoltaic (PV) technologies. Ashamedly, the current prospect for future energy resources in the U.S. does little to reduce carbon emissions. It is time we changed that fact!!

War Funds Clarification

I received a question from someone asking me to clarify the content of my last post in which I mentioned: "the money pouring out of the U.S. for the “war on terrorism”".

Sure. One would argue that the United States profits by going to war no matter what the reason. While I am not disagreeing that the U.S. profits from war, I would say that the profit has a narrow focus in that it benefits only employees and shareholders of the specific companies which profit from war.

The point which I meant to express was that all these billions of U.S. dollars which is the money of the people largely through taxes has no benefit for them. That through expenditure of funds for war, the programs of the people get cut and others get grossly underfunded. This of course as a direct result of the war spending.

There is no doubt that war means big money. But it only benefits a very tiny percentage of Americans. Millions of Americans however are being and/or will be affected by program cuts. And amazingly, even our men and women serving in the armed forces who are sacrificing their lives and quality of their lives will be seeing further program cuts in veteran medical care. So even here, what is bad now gets worse. Why must we use these dedicated men and women like expendable pawns? Anyway, I hope this clears up any uncertainty.