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Friday, June 27, 2008
AudioCasts of Future1investor Friday Morning
“What is good for General Motors is good for America”
For those of you who did not take advantage of the FREE look into MarketClub, a tool we live by and for those who have but have not had the time to really get into all they have to offer, I am reposting a blog post written by one of the founders Adam Hewison. I'm doing so because not only does it follow-up to my previous posts regarding electric vehicles and our country's need to get on the ball, but it shows how MarketClub can be used when a stock is going down, as well as up! This is the case for General Motors (GM). You can read the entire piece here too if you like
“What is good for General Motors is good for America”
Back in 1955, Charlie Wilson, then chairman of General Motors Corp. made this somewhat pompous statement. Here we are, some 53 years later and look what is happening to the stock of General Motors (NYSE_GM). This stock is at a 53 year low and shows no signs of turning around.
So the question becomes, what happened to America and General Motors? How did this company lose its edge in the marketplace?
HOW DID GM GET IT SO WRONG?
Digging through the history of GM, I found one fascinating item. GM developed an electric car back in 1996 when gas was $1.28 a gallon! They named the battery powered car the EV1 and then basically scrapped it in 2002.
Today there is very little evidence that this car was ever in existence. I am sure you’re thinking right about how we could sure use a car like that today with gas prices trading over $4.00 a gallon.
When you look at the stock of General Motors, you’ll see that the high for the stock in the last eight years was around $68 in 2002. What’s interesting is that high point in the stock was right around the time GM scrapped its EV1 car.
So what happened to GM’s first electric car? GM claims there was not enough public demand. That could be, but I think the story is a lot more complicated than that.
You can see all the GM - Big Oil conspiracy theories in the movie
WHY KILL THE GOLDEN GOOSE?
From a business standpoint, why would GM want to improve something that would kill the goose that lays the golden egg? General Motors tends to make most of its money on sales of replacement parts. Up to 40% of its profits come from selling replacement parts for existing GM automobiles, so why would they sabotage their own cash flow?
Unlike a gasoline driven car, which has many moving parts, an electrical car like the GM’s EV1 has very few parts to go wrong, so therefore part sales and cash flow would go right into the tank for GM. The other perception problem GM has with an all electric car with zero emissions is this: if GM produces an all electric clean car with zero emissions, it’s making an admission that all of their other cars are dirty, spew out harmful emissions and pollute the planet.
But look at how GM got it wrong. This may be one of the biggest blunders ever in American corporate history. GM took the lead in electric car technology (smart move), but was not convinced that they as a company could be profitable selling electric cars.
WHO OWNS THE MOST ADVANCE BATTERY TECHNOLOGY?
One fascinating piece of information is that GM acquired advanced battery technology from Ovonic’s in the form of a NiMH battery. This battery produces a stronger, longer lasting charge, and was the ideal battery for their second generation of EV1 cars. What came out later was truly a shocker, GM sold this amazing battery technology along with the patent (dumb move) to Texaco who was later taken over by Chevron. Now Chevron owns the technology and the patent!
You have to ask yourself the question… why would an oil company be interested in purchasing advanced battery technology from a major car producer like GM?
I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
Fast forward to 2008 when everyone is mad as H#LL for having to pay over $4.00 for a gallon of gas. Back in 1996 when GM launched the EV1 with very little fanfare, the cost of gas was around $1.28 a gallon.
Why GM decided to scrap the EV1 and look for short-term profits in big cars as opposed to building and preparing to adopt a different business model is still a mystery and one that has decimated GM’s stock price in the last five years.
The automobile business has not changed in almost a century and the industry appears reluctant to embrace change. It would now appear that GM’s business model like many of its big cars is rapidly becoming outdated and destined for dinosaur land.
LET’S LOOK AT THE STOCK OF GM
Let’s take a look at the GM stock chart and see how you would have fared had you purchased GM stock at $68 in 2003. Then let’s look at the same stock using a MarketClub’s proactive approach. As you can see the results of a buy and hold strategy have been a disaster losing 79% of its value for all share holders while the proactive results have been quite stellar.
If a major company like General Motors can fall to a 53 year low, so can any stock on the big board.
Readers of this blog know that MarketClub uses a proactive approach when taking positions in the marketplace. The world has changed, and it has changed not only for GM but for many other mature companies that are using business models and products that are rapidly becoming outdated and will prove to be noncompetitive in the long run.
Original Posting
Friday 5
Everyone has a top ten list so we are going to have one each day too! These are our top 5 stock picks with volume exceeding 1 million.
* Sport Supply Group (RBI)
* Spectra Energy (SE)
* National Oil Well Varco (NOV)
* Atwood Oceanics (ATW)
* Royale Energy Inc (ROYL)
These are stocks we like as a buy. Watch the technicals closely as they may turn quickly.
Response To Article Post: Wow that Sox!
Niclas Winblad of MarketEDU
"The act was implemented as a reaction and means to control companies involved in fraud, such as Enron and WorldCom. Despite the good intensions, the question is whether SOX actually exerts a cost or benefit on companies and society.
....However, all the “suffering” may be worth it in order to catch the single bad guy who tries to cause trouble. So overall, airport security or SOX, as annoying as it is to the honest people or the world, may in fact be a huge benefit considering the possible price to be paid for poor security or lack or financial reporting laws."
We agree that such controls can be annoying and We agree with Niclas that it may be worth it. We also know Niclas, that there are plenty of companies who will make a wide berth in order to skirt the question of weather their company would pass even a minimum SOX audit.
No company will use it unless it is absolutely required of them. Even if required it may not matter if they fail an audit. If the SOX audit is not reported on and turned into an actionable matter unless there are grave problems which were seen in Enron and other notable news, then why would they care to do it at all?
Sarbanes-Oxley in our opinion is a far too difficult means of preventing a wrong. This is one clear example of why companies show disdain and disrespect for formalized Quality and quality employed individuals and teams. Quality professionals face a continued upward battle in corporate America because it has not seen that the best way to improve is to respect the fact that people can be taught to improve their work processes if allowed, given respect and given the proper and sufficient resources. Also, much can be gained from employing 'best practices' from a wide range of process improvements and solutions to problems.
Take for instance the global success of Toyota (TM) as just one example. The United States was once the leader in innovation, in fact the leader in many things. Now it seems to have lost the pioneering spirit and support of government. Instead the U.S. sits back and watches as the rest of the world especially developing countries, grow, innovate, and prosper. It sits back while jobs are lost to those same countries and sees more venture in war and oil.
Perhaps the U.S. should find a new focus on excellence rather than go on with the idea of capital expansion at all cost including that of the workforce. Perhaps a new focus has to take place in the workforce by companies honoring employees and then perhaps companies will find that profits can rise from employee loyalty and the attainment of excellence!
With this attainment, wrong-doing will dramatically decrease as excellence will not be conducive to wrong-doers.
Goldman Sachs Changes Tune
Goldman Sachs upgrades Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (Nasdaq: SOLF) from Sell to Neutral.
Makes you go Hmmmm?!!!
UK Prime Minister Vows Dramatic Renewable Energy Program
Prime Minister Brown today reaffirmed that the UK will spend $100 billion on a dramatic new energy program. The $100 billion will come from private business and encouraged through financial incentives in a speech to come from its business secretary, John Hutton.
Thousands of new wind turbines could be built across the UK as part of the program. Prime Minister Brown says: "It will require real leadership from government - being prepared to make hard decisions on planning or on tax for example. It will mean new kinds of consumer behaviour and lifestyles. And it will demand creativity, innovation and entrepreneurialism throughout our economy and our society."
The announcement comes on the heels of the U.S. announcement of a paltry $100 million toward renewables and after the defeat of bill H.R. 6049. The bill would have had legislation to extended the residential and commercial tax credits for solar energy for eight years. The bill was supported by a diverse coalition including manufacturers, construction firms, environmental groups, electric utilities, chemical companies, banks, investors, labor, public health and religious organizations, trade associations and many others. But sadly the U.S. Senate defeated it.
Meanwhile, the U.K. says that this new renewable energy program will bring 160,000 new jobs. It plans that the North Sea will be turned into "the equivalent for wind power of what the Gulf of Arabia is for oil". Wind turbines will also be built inland, but with sensitivity towards local communities.
Alaskans Gets A Royal Screwin & Big Oil Smiles With Pleasure
Did anyone drop their bagel mid-bite or spit out their coffee when the news Exxon was getting a pat on the hand came through today?
Not long after our dear President Bush indicated that he wanted to put the pipe to more pristine Alaskan territory in that bravado tone he uses...
The $2.5 billion in punitive damages formerly decided against Exxon for the sea of thick black crude it disastrously puked upon Alaska's wildlife and way of life was all but dropped today.
Tax paying Americans, and every TV watcher with a heart and soul worldwide, wept tears of sorrow for the countless suffocating, devastated, and dead creatures of God's design.
The persons of the Supreme Court of the United States deemed that the original ruling should be slashed because it was excessive under maritime law. Instead it has lowered the punishment, not in half but less than a fourth to just over $507 million dollars.
Big oil must be smiling with supreme pleasure. Exxon earned just over $40 billion in the year 2007 alone. Which basically amounts to a minor traffic violation fee for what it was responsible for. The amount won't even come anywhere near to covering the losses families have been forced to endure as they themselves saw their way of life literally drown in the thick, sick sludge which poured from the tanker at 11,300,000 gallons in just a few hours. The result was an oil slick the size of 3,000 sq. miles which has caused a lasting effect still 19 years later.
We can not embed the video here because while they have not been able to prevent the video from being archived, they have managed to prevent the video from spilling out all over the internet. Instead, you'll have to see it by clicking on this link
If you are a stock holder of Exxon (XOM), you have Supreme Court Justice David Souter to thank for keeping your stock price where it is at today.
Tonight we pray for the souls of the Exxon Board of Directors.
However we doubt they will put things right because they take pleasure in the now and obviously are not worried for their future.
Punishment for the damned (see also the last paragraph)
As of last August 2007, the Exxon Valdez still rode the waters of the world as the S/R Mediterranean. The new name was given in 1990 after 1,500 metric tons of steel were removed and replaced in repairs following the incident.
FROM Wikipedia:
The Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers International Union, representing approximately 40,000 workers nationwide, announced opposition to drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) until Congress enacted a comprehensive national energy policy. In the aftermath of the spill, Alaska governor Steve Cowper issued an executive order requiring two tugboats to escort every loaded tanker from Valdez out through Prince William Sound to Hinchinbrook Entrance. As the plan evolved in the 1990s, one of the two routine tugboats was replaced with a 210 foot (64 m) Escort Response Vehicle (ERV). The majority of tankers at Valdez are still single-hulled, but Congress has enacted legislation requiring all tankers to be double-hulled by 2015.
In 1991, following the collapse of the local marine population (particularly clams, herring, and seals) the Chugach Native American group went bankrupt[26]
Many of the real estate appraisal methods used to value contaminated property and brownfields were developed as a result of and following the spill. The use of survey research (e.g. contingent valuation and conjoint measurement) became a well-accepted appraisal method as a result of the complex valuation problems associated with contamination.[27]
According to several studies funded by the state of Alaska, the spill had both short- and long term economic effects. These included the loss of recreational sports fisheries, reduced tourism, and an estimate of what economists call "existence value," which is the value to the public of a pristine Prince William Sound.[28][29][30]
WikiScanner discovered changes made from within Exxon Mobil, altering this article's descriptions of the oil spill and down playing its severity.
Social Networking Power Seeps Into Applications
I have been letting my views and opinions out onto the vast WorldWideWeb now since before most of you readers were even born! I organized the largest number of System Operators (Sysops) ever to meet in one place. Now that says quite a lot as my learned scholarly and entrepreneurial business friends would say.
It would be nice to know that some of my rants and raves such as the 
Well years later, it seems that Microsoft is now attempting to be a little more consumer caring. And it looks like possibly my rant on the uselessness of FaceBook but promotion of social networking sites is being heard.
Today we have help (sometimes questionable) from telecenters in India, we have distant learning of which I participated in one of the few way back in the '80s. Do you remember the early online virtual worlds?
I was also part of those early renditions which were exciting but clunky attempts to bring people together online. Well today, Sony and a couple handfuls of other companies have gotten behind the dream to develop this further. And we will eventually see truly productive applications linking people together in both a purely social as well as purely business, educational, and entertaining ways.
One of my Canadian friends turned me onto BlogTV. This is a social networking site that has been around awhile and allows anyone to use their web cam to host a show and even have a co-host on with you from anywhere else in the world! Granted some of the blogTV hosts are quite lame but it gives them an outlet for social interaction which can be for pure fun or for other things. I plan on using blogTV as a way for my online neighbors and friends to chime in on my interest for trading/investing and all things technology. Of course there are other ways but this is simple and fun!
BlogTV Weekly
You can have audio, draw on the screen, kick people out for inappropriate behavior and build a network of followers. Unlike Facebook you don't have a zillion widgets wanting your attention. It is purely an audio/visual world where the host creates whatever kind of show he/she chooses.
. The best way to describe it is to quote directly: "MARKETEDU.COM is the first financial education website to combine Interactive Rich Media Technologies and World Class Finance Expertise together in one expansive online community. 30 Years of financial experience has been combined with cutting edge award winning, interactive design to deliver the most accessible user friendly financial web community on the globe."If you have any interest in investing or trading, then I encourage you to become a registered member. You'll find a site that is rich in multimedia and friendly, hence the social networking side of it.
MarketEDU
Since technology is constantly improving and people wish to further push the limits of possibility; social networking will become a key feature in more and more applications to come. I for one look forward to the next pipe dream becoming reality. Perhaps you'll play an integral part and have your fifteen minutes of fame!
There Is NO Energy Crisis_What "They" Don't Want You To Know Part 1
These two Australian partners have come up with a generator that creates power infinitum and can be used in your household to generate free power. What will be the key thing to watch is how quickly this invention is squashed! Yes folks its been done many, many times before. Whenever an invention that can put some big business out of business comes to reality, it is quickly squashed as we call it and that invention is never talked of, seen, or heard of again. That is, until folks like us bring it back to life.
Long Life Electrical Generation For Home
100% Efficient Water/Steam Generator
A Look Inside The Almost Fuel-less Boiler PumpThere Is NO Energy Crisis _ What "THEY" Don't Want You To Know Part 2
Thanks to Google for all the fantastic educational videos we get to see here. Thank you Google for backing Nanosolar. Thanks to GENI and Buckminster Fuller for bringing us these next videos...
There is no energy crisis, just ignorance and a lack of proper leadership among countries, governments, companies, and people. The solution has been around but we have been blinded by politics. We have had propaganda of government and its big business puppeteers turn us into sheep. That same propaganda would have us believe that it just isn't possible to have clean and renewable energy today. Oh! but we have companies like Nanosolar, Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), and many others with individuals that see the need and are trying to fulfill it.
We have what we need to be oil / coal independent far sooner than we have been told. We have the ability to make a better life for ourselves and our children today and in the future. So cry out to your leaders, your representatives in every government in every country on the planet. Lets make this thing work and lets get on the ball already!
), and many others with individuals that see the need and are trying to fulfill it.We have what we need to be oil / coal independent far sooner than we have been told. We have the ability to make a better life for ourselves and our children today and in the future. So cry out to your leaders, your representatives in every government in every country on the planet. Lets make this thing work and lets get on the ball already!
A Win-Win Solution
Thirty experts from the United Nations, engineering firms, environmental and electrical engineers gathered to discuss the social, political, environmental and economic benefits of the interconnection of electric power grids across borders with an emphasis on tapping remote renewable energy resources. Hosted by the Winnipeg HVDC Research Institute and Manitoba Hydro, these findings offer a strong case for accelerating the GENI Initiative between all nations as a win-win solution for everyone.
Thirty experts from the United Nations, engineering firms, environmental and electrical engineers gathered to discuss the social, political, environmental and economic benefits of the interconnection of electric power grids across borders with an emphasis on tapping remote renewable energy resources. Hosted by the Winnipeg HVDC Research Institute and Manitoba Hydro, these findings offer a strong case for accelerating the GENI Initiative between all nations as a win-win solution for everyone.
Solar Energy Cost Reductions
Thanks for this in part go to EVangel who read the last post and commented. EVangel's suggestion to check out Nanosolar prompted this post.
Company reduces cost of solar, Nanosolar
An American company is producing a solar product that reduces the cost of solar energy production down to 99 cents per watt. This is a huge leap over the current cost of about $3 per watt. Also, energy payback is almost immediate or less than one month!
The technology used is called (CIGS) photovoltaic. CIGS stands for Copper indium gallium selenide. What reduces the cost is that there is no silicon (a big material cost) and it doesn't have to be mounted to glass (a weight factor).
Two things that bum us out:
1) Nanosolar is not a publicly traded company.
2) The product is not initially being used in our own country but rather in Germany. This underlines the fact that we as a country are far behind not only Germany, but that we are not leading the world through strong government backing in this very important area.
The first 100,000 cells produced were slated to be shipped to Europe, where a consortium will be building a 1.4-megawatt solar power plant located on a former landfill owned by one of the largest waste management companies in Eastern Germany.
According to the Earth Policy Institute in Washington, production of photovoltaics jumped to 3,800 megawatts worldwide in 2007, up an estimated 50 per cent over 2006. Photovoltaics is growing by an impressive average of 48% each year since 2002, doubling every two years, making it the world’s fastest-growing energy source.
The Nanosolar product touts these features:
- the world’s first commercial solar panel based on a printed solar cell
- the world’s first thin-film solar cell with a back-contact
- the world’s lowest-cost solar panel –which they believe will make them the first company capable of profitably selling solar panels for as little as $.99/Watt
- the world’s highest-current thin-film solar panel – delivering five times the current of any other thin-film panel on the market today and thus simplifying system deployment
- an intensely systems-optimized product with the lowest balance-of-system cost of any thin-film panel – due to innovations in design
British scientists called the Nanosolar product "a revolution" in generating electricity.
Why Are We So Contradictory?
Never have we seen such double-talk / double-action in this world as we are seeing in our own back yard. USA and China are the two largest producers of energy now in the world. Though out of the two, the USA remains king of the hill for energy consumption per person. Of course along with that, pollution and climate degradation goes hand in hand.
Earlier in this blog, we brought back the story of how our government along with the car manufacturers and oil companies killed the electric car some years ago. Killed it because it didn't suit the profit model of the car companies and big oil. Killed it because some of the government puppeteer positions are partly held by both these industries.
On one hand, government spouts ecology, conservationism, energy independence, and having a people's choice in all matters. Then they go and do the exact opposite. Or better yet, they say they are for this or that, while doing little to bring it to reality with the importance and time-frame required to make it actionable. The only side that really seems to do anything of purpose is the people's side. More exactly, individuals and their companies who see the obvious needs and strive to fulfill them. But the problem to that is what also needs to happen is that government needs to take a true stand, and then either support efforts by these people or oppose them rather than double-talk and double-action.
For instance, this month, the US and China held the fourth China-US Economic Dialogue. The so called purpose of this is to promote long-term co-operation in energy, the environment and other related areas.
The Chinese government gives high priority to energy and resources conservation and the protection of the environment. They are speeding up the demonstration and promotion of the industrialization of energy-conserving and pollution-reducing technologies and adopting higher standards on energy conservation in major energy-intensive industries, such as iron, steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, electric power, petrochemicals and building materials, as well as in the construction and transport sectors. They are vigorously developing the circular economy and working to reduce energy consumption per 10,000 renminbi of gross domestic product by 20% by 2010 from the 2005 level.
The Chinese are developing renewable energy, promoting the use of hydropower, wind power, solar power, methane and biomass energy. They are planting more trees and better protecting natural forests and increasing the percentage of natural reserves.
What are we doing in our back yard?
President Bush wants to drill for oil in Alaska's pristine ecologically sensitive areas.
Washington's energy policy is to tax successful energy sources and subsidize unsuccessful ones.
A recent poll showed that 94 percent of Americans feel it is important for the U.S. to develop and use solar energy. A vast majority supported extending Federal tax credits for renewable energy.
H.R. 6049, a bill that would extend solar and other renewable energy tax credits would have legislation to extended the residential and commercial tax credits for solar energy for eight years. It is supported by a diverse coalition including manufacturers, construction firms, environmental groups, electric utilities, chemical companies, banks, investors, labor, public health and religious organizations, trade associations and many others.
What happened to the bill?
U.S. Senate, defeated it!
What happens now?
The loss of more than 116,000 jobs and $19 billion in investment in 2009 in the solar and wind energy industries alone!
What could this bill bring?
- Tens of thousands of American jobs
- Stabilize rising energy costs for families and businesses
- Help us achieve national energy security
Makes Me Crazy!
You have to eliminate emotions from your trading decisions which is one of the biggest advantages of using MarketClub (see previous post).
You also have to eliminate the NOISE
We'd like to thank Don Harrold and of course Jim Cramer for helping us see the light...Hallelujah!
Manipulation Continues
We for one are firm believers that insiders associated with Goldman Sachs are taking advantage of GS market manipulations. Just days after good news of a merger nearing, a GS analyst downgraded the stock saying that demand for satellite has diminished. Again, walking the line of truth, the effect of this sent the stock into a glorious discount as millions of shares were sold at the current price and then slowly re-bought. It is our opinion that this was done with intention and those privy to the pre-announcement bought into SIRI after the 28 million share sell-off..giving
During the Future1investor's Conference in Cabo this spring, several folks talked of their appreciation of satellite radio with one of the investors saying that he could never go back to the old radio. In fact he and his wife purchased a life-time subscription to satellite radio and they say that they can't wait for Sirius Backseat TV. "With two young children who you have to drive around all the time, this is a must!" said the investor. His family enjoys satellite radio in all their vehicles and while sunning and swimming at their back yard pool.
Sirius is featured in over 150 new car models from 24 different brands from Audi through Volvo.
SIRIUS Backseat TV is a pioneering service that delivers live TV from three of the best family networks — Nickelodeon, Disney Channel and Cartoon Network, to the video screens of select vehicles equipped with a SIRIUS Backseat TV receiver. For added flexibility, rear-seat passengers can enjoy SIRIUS Backseat TV while front-seat occupants listen to SIRIUS Satellite Radio. The system can be operated from either the rear-seat entertainment unit or the radio head unit in the front of the vehicle.
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 | Nickelodeon service includes popular shows such as SpongeBob SquarePants, Dora the Explorer and The Adventures of Jimmy Neutron, Boy Genius. | |
 | Disney Channel includes popular shows like Hannah Montana, Cory in the House, The Suite Life of Zack & Cody, Mickey Mouse Clubhouse and My Friends Tigger & Pooh. | |
 | Cartoon Network Mobile includes short-form programming ranging from two to eleven minutes each, and includes Chowder™, My Gym Partner's a Monkey™, and Foster’s Home for Imaginary Friends™. |
The company also has 37 job openings with the majority in its New York operations. It also has a fall internship program.
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